The economy is holding up. Consumers don't feel it.
Spending and growth are resilient, but sentiment sits near historic lows and the Fed raised rates a quarter point.
U-Mich index is near an all-time low; 45% of Gallup respondents rate the economy as poor.
Exactly on projections. The Fed followed with a unanimous quarter-point increase.
Revised up from the 1.5% first reported.
A rebound after July's 0.5% dip, with strength even outside fuel.
Well below expectations after a strong August (162k). Unemployment edged up to 4.2%.
Truckload: contract rates climb while spot holds flat
Record diesel and tighter enforcement are pulling capacity out of the market.
What it means for you
Expect contract bids to come in higher and carriers to be pickier about freight. Locking in capacity before peak is worth more than chasing spot savings.
Contract and spot are moving apart
DAT van rates, change over the past two months
Full detail and sources
Fuel keeps pressure on capacity
FTR's Trucking Conditions Index moderated in July after record carrier-favorable readings in May and June, but capacity remains tight as peak demand builds.
Enforcement could tighten further
Action on chameleon carriers, English-language proficiency, carrier compliance standards and non-domiciled CDLs could reduce driver availability further.
2027 outlook
Truckload rates are expected to rise another 10% in 2027 as capacity exits the market. Shippers should plan for more rate volatility around seasonal surges.
Sources: Supply Chain Brain, Wall Street Journal, Transport Topics, AAR, ACT Research, EIA, DAT, National Private Truck Council, American Journal of Transportation, Supply Chain 24/7, Sea News, Truck News
LTL: freight shifts in, rates go up
Tight truckload capacity is pushing freight into LTL networks, and carriers are pricing accordingly.
What it means for you
Carriers are checking dimensions, weights and classes more closely, and re-class charges add up. Accurate shipment data is now one of the cheapest ways to control LTL spend.
LTL pricing indexes since January 2024
Indexed, January 2024 = 100%. Hover for values.
Full detail and sources
August volumes were mixed
XPO (+5.7%) and Saia (+1.1%) grew shipments, while Old Dominion (−2.4%) and ArcBest (−4.0%) declined.
Buffers are shrinking
Service is stable, but transit-time variability suggests less spare capacity to absorb demand spikes. Fuel surcharges stay elevated with diesel near records.
Carriers are investing
Networks are adding terminals, service centers and equipment to handle the freight shifting in from truckload.
Sources: Netstock, FreightWaves, ACT Research, BLS, TD Cowen/AFS, WSJ, ISM, SupplyChain247, Freight Wise, Freightos, Atlantic Logistics
Air: demand is growing faster than capacity
Rate growth has cooled, but spot prices remain well above last year heading into peak.
What it means for you
Shippers are moving to flexible, market-based pricing rather than long fixed-rate deals. If ocean congestion pushes freight to air in Q4, book peak capacity early.
Demand vs. capacity by region, August
Year-over-year change, by airline region of registration
Full detail and sources
Where growth came from
Asia Pacific and North America drove more than 70% of global demand growth. Global trade grew 6% in July, the 33rd straight month of growth.
China holiday effect
Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week reduced Chinese export activity, with possible capacity imbalances in the weeks after.
Regional notes
European carriers have limited routing flexibility and are consolidating through hubs. Flight cancellations in Asia are reducing effective capacity.
Sources: IATA, Air Cargo News, Air Cargo Week, American Journal of Transportation, Stat Times, Xeneta
Ocean: transpacific stays high, Asia–Europe softens
Canal improvements help transit times, but reliability is low and October schedules may be volatile.
What it means for you
Build buffer into Asia lead times. Double sailings on Asia–Europe could bring blank sailings later in October, while transpacific rates stay above historical norms.
Container spot rates, last 52 weeks
USD per 40-foot container. Tap a lane in the legend to hide or show it.
Full detail and sources
Panama Canal
Neopanamax transits rise from 9 to 10 per day on October 15, and maximum authorized draft returns to 49 feet as water levels recover.
October volatility
Twelve double sailings on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean services in Oct 1–14 add capacity as post-holiday demand softens.
Diversification
Trade uncertainty is pushing importers to diversify sourcing away from China, adding complexity across lanes. Fuel costs remain elevated.
Sources: JOC, American Shipper, Port Technology, FreightWaves, Supply Chain Dive, American Journal of Transportation, Supply Chain 24/7
Customs: relief on some tariffs, more scrutiny on importers
A U.S.–China framework could lower duties on $30B of goods, while CBP steps up Importer of Record vetting.
What it means for you
Check whether your products fall in the relief categories. If you import as a nonresident, ship DDP or run e-commerce fulfillment, review your importer records now, since CBP is focusing there.
Who benefits from the proposed relief
Covered categories, about $30B in imports. Apparel and footwear are excluded.
Full detail and sources
United States
- CBP is advancing enhanced IOR oversight under Executive Order 14411, with more measures due by December 3.
- CAPE Phase 3 launched October 6 for finally liquidated IEEPA entries with a CIT reliquidation order.
- A new import ban covers nearly $1B of Canadian goods, on top of 50% tariffs on $20B.
Mexico
- Proposed Ley Aduanera reforms in the 2027 economic package would expand valuation enforcement and raise the risk of inspections, holds and border delays.
Europe
- The new Union Customs Code took effect September 20.
- A €3 duty on low-value e-commerce imports is in force; a €2 handling fee and mandatory product identifiers start November 1.
- Switzerland approved the EFTA–Mercosur agreement.
Sources: International Trade Today, KPMG, Journal of Commerce, Supply Chain Brain, Transport Topics, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Customs & International Trade Law Blog, Flexport
Sanctions and export controls
Russia and Iran stay the top enforcement priorities, and regulators are looking hard at diversion through intermediaries.
What it means for you
Know who you're really shipping to. Verify end users, destinations and intermediaries, and use FinCEN's red-flag indicators when screening orders with aviation or military-adjacent goods.
Russia and Iran sanctions expanded
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 broadens authority for sanctions, tariffs and other measures. DOJ cases continue to target false end-user, destination and shipping information.
FinCEN Iran procurement alert
Alert FIN-2026-Alert006 lists red flags for diversion of goods and technology to Iranian commercial aviation.
U.S.–China truce extended
The truce runs through January 10, 2027. Officials signaled a possible extension of the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension; formal guidance is pending.
EU dual-use controls widen
Annex I to Regulation 2021/821 now covers more semiconductor technology, and an ECJ Advocate General opinion (C-538/25) favors broader criteria for non-listed dual-use items.
UK defense export flexibility
An updated OGEL allows some UK-origin military goods into systems built in France, Germany or Spain, if UK content stays at or below 20% of value.
India court limits sanctions-based suspensions
The Delhi High Court ordered SAP to restore services it suspended under EU sanctions, finding foreign sanctions alone weren't grounds to stop performing a contract in India.
Sources: EU Commission, UK Export Control Joint Unit, EU Court of Justice, US Congress, FinCEN, US Department of Justice, Bennink Dunin-Wasowicz
Dates to watch
Key deadlines and effective dates from this issue.
Worth reading
Selected articles from this month's sources.
Shippers want short-term deals as demand squeezes capacity
Air Cargo News TruckloadNearshoring growth collides with tightening US–Mexico trucking capacity
Sea News LTLUS LTL truck pricing climbs 4.5% in August rebound
Journal of Commerce Air'Hyperscaler' boom: 33 freighters a day carrying data center trade to the US
Airfreight News SecurityCargo thieves are 'laundering freight' through the supply chain
FreightWaves OceanAsia–Europe container trade hits record as exports surge
Port Technology CustomsA confluence of tariff changes: why "classify once" no longer works
Supply Chain Brain LTLCarrier verification: who's really hauling your freight?
Transport Topics